{"id":24796,"date":"2024-12-10T09:33:19","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T01:33:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/?p=24796"},"modified":"2024-12-10T09:33:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T01:33:19","slug":"%e5%be%ae%e8%bd%af-ai-%e6%8e%8c%e9%97%a8%e4%ba%ba%e8%8b%8f%e8%8e%b1%e6%9b%bc%e4%b8%8d%e7%9c%8b%e5%a5%bd-openai-%e9%98%bf%e5%b0%94%e7%89%b9%e6%9b%bc%e5%af%b9-agi-%e7%9a%84%e9%a2%84%e5%88%a4%ef%bc%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/24796.html","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft AI chief Suleiman not optimistic about OpenAI Altman's prediction for AGI: current hardware can't deliver"},"content":{"rendered":"

As The Verge reported tonight.Microsoft<\/a> AI CEO Mustafa Suleiman has taken issue with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's latest statement that currentHardware not possible<\/strong>\u00a0AGI<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Altman has recently stated that AGI can be used ingiven the existing hardware<\/strong>Realization.<\/p>\n

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For his part, Suleiman noted in an interview that this goalMaybe another ten years.<\/strong>When it comes to the definition of \"existing hardware\", Suleiman responded that it would be difficult to achieve in this condition. When it comes to the definition of \"existing hardware\", using The Verge's criteria of \"one or two generations ahead of existing hardware\", Suleiman responded that AGI would be difficult to achieve under these conditions:<\/p>\n

\"I think the NVIDIA GB200s\u00a0incompetent<\/strong>. But in the futureTwo to five generations of hardware<\/strong>It is possible to realize it in the middle, but I don't think the probability of success in two years is very high. Depending on the hardware development cycle, each generation of hardware currently takes 18 to 24 months, so five generations could mean ten years.\"<\/p>\n

Suleiman added: \"There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this issue, and any assertions would appear arbitrary or even exaggerated.\"<\/p>\n

He further distinguishes between AGI and the concept of \"singularity\":<\/p>\n

The definition of AGI is critical.AGI is not the singularity.<\/strong>The latter is a system capable of self-improvement in an exponential recursive manner. The latter is a system that is capable of self-improvement in an exponential recursive manner, and whose capabilities will rapidly surpass human intelligence.<\/p>\n

AGI is a program that canUniversal learning system adapted to various training environments<\/strong>that covers both intellectual work and manual labor. The complexity of robotics makes me skeptical of achieving this goal in the short term.<\/p>\n

But within the next five to ten years, we may develop aAdapts to a wide range of environments without excessive intervention prompts<\/strong>of the AI system. While this may not be equivalent to AGI and will not lead directly to the singularity, it mayReplacing most human knowledge work<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

He also believes that the current focus on AGI is a bit off the mark: \"Rather than obsessing about the Singularity or superintelligence, I'm more focused on developing theAI systems that actually help humans<\/strong>. These AIs shouldFor Users<\/strong>, to be part of its team rather than pursuing unattainable theoretical goals.\"<\/p>\n

Only a year after Microsoft helped Altman return to his role as OpenAI CEO, the \"cracks\" in the relationship between the two are already showing. Suleiman revealed that Microsoft is working on AI models that can \"rival the GPT-4\/4o level\". He admitted that the relationship between the two sidesNaturally, it will be adjusted over time<\/strong>. \"It's normal for every partnership to experience a certain amount of tension. After all, the nature of our business is completely different. Collaborations need to constantly adjust to reality, and we'll see how that changes in the coming years.\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleiman has taken issue with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's latest statement that AGI is not achievable with current hardware, The Verge reported tonight. Note: Altman recently said that AGI can be achieved with current hardware. In an interview, Suleiman noted that this goal may be a decade away. When it comes to the definition of \"existing hardware,\" using The Verge's criteria of \"one to two generations ahead of existing hardware,\" Suleiman responded that AGI would be difficult to achieve under these conditions: \"I don't think NVIDIA's GB200s are up to it. I don't think the NVIDIA GB200s are up to the task. But it's possible to achieve it in the next two to five generations of hardware, but I don't think the probability of success in two years is very high. Depending on the hardware<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[146],"tags":[151,280],"collection":[],"class_list":["post-24796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-agi","tag-280"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24796\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24796"},{"taxonomy":"collection","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.1ai.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/collection?post=24796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}