On October 2nd, according to the British Financial Times, the spread of ChatGPT has not yet had a dramatic impact on the US job market, as claimed by some CEOs and tech executivesAIThere are gaps in the reformed labour market。
Yale UniversityResearch by Budget Laboratories and the Brookings Institution shows that since OpenAI launched ChatGPT at the end of 2022, Generating AI has had no greater impact on employment than when computers and the Internet appeared. The study is based on official employment data and industry statistics on the use of AITHERE'S NO EVIDENCE THAT THE AI TOOL IS TAKING OVER HUMAN WORK ON A MASSIVE SCALE.
Molly King, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution, said: “The labour market in the last three yearsGENERAL STABILITY, NOT REWRITE BY AII don't know. We have not come to the so-called `end of employment', which should be good news for an anxious public.”
AND THE DIRECTOR OF YALE BUDGET LABORATORIES, MARTHA KIMBER, SAID, "MANY PEOPLE THINK THE JOB MARKET IS BAD, SO IT'S EASY TO BELIEVE THAT AI IS TAKING JOBS. BUT WE'VE CHECKED THE DATA OVER AND OVER AGAINThere's no sign of it. "
According to the study, while ChatGPT has changed the job structure within the technology industryIt didn't make the entire United States economy work faster than computers and the InternetI DON'T KNOW. “THE IMPACT OF AI IS STILL AT AN EARLY STAGE AND THE COMPANY IS STILL SEARCHING FOR WAYS TO REMODEL ITS BUSINESS.”
THE STUDY ALSO FOUND THAT THE EMERGENCE OF THE GENERATED AINot significantly affecting the employment of young graduatesI don't know. Unemployment rate of undergraduate students aged 20 to 24 yearsUP TO 9.31 TP3T IN AUGUST, HIGHER THAN 4.41 TP3T IN APRILHowever, there is no significant difference in the type of work compared to graduates aged 25 to 29, which suggests that the difficulty of being employed is more related to the overall economic environment than to technological shocks。
This conclusion contradicts the violent statements of some executives. IT House was informed that the British Standards Association survey showed that 39% business leaders stated that AI had led to a reduction in junior positions and 43% was expected to be further reduced in the coming year. Anthropic CEO Dario Amordi is more in the fields of May warning, law, counselling and financeProbably lost half of his junior jobThe unemployment rate in the United States is projected to rise to 10%-20% over the next five years, well above the current 4.3%. OpenAI CEO Altman has also stated that AI will make a job like a customer service disappear。
HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO MANY ECONOMISTS, THESE STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN OVERSTATED. MIT PROFESSOR AND NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE DARON ASIMOGLU SAID: “MANY CORPORATE MANAGEMENTS FEEL OBLIGED TO USE AI, AND MARKET SPECULATIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED. BUT..There are very few really creative applicationsI DON'T KNOW. HE ADDED THAT AI WAS MAKING A BIG DEAL OUT OF ITPromote business investment in computing to train larger language models.
THE GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PREDICTS THAT AI MAY REPLACE THE LABOUR FORCE OF 6%-7% IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT THE IMPACT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL. THE YALE BUDGET LABORATORY PLANS TO UPDATE RELEVANT DATA ON A MONTHLY BASIS. KIMBER SAID: “AI'S REAL CHANGE IN THE JOB MARKET IS STILL UNKNOWN AND WE NEED TO KEEP WATCHING, BUT THERE IS NO NEED TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS TOO SOON.”