ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF TESLA, ERÓN MASK, WROTE YESTERDAY ON PLATFORM X: “I GUESS, I THINK, I THINK I'M GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO THISAI WillUSANext year GDP THE RATE OF INCREASE ROUGHLY DOUBLED, FROM 2% TO ABOUT 4%, PERHAPS HIGHER.”
ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ELON MASK OF TESLA WROTE YESTERDAY ON PLATFORM X: “I GUESS AI WILL ROUGHLY DOUBLE THE US GDP GROWTH RATE NEXT YEAR, FROM 2% TO ABOUT 4%, PERHAPS HIGHER.”
Mask's predictions contrast with mainstream economic views. The morning star company says that in 2027, the growth rate in the United States will slowThe Fed's continued interest rate hike increases uncertainty about economic prospects; APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT ESTIMATES THAT US AI CAPITAL EXPENDITURE MAY REACH 3% OF GDP IN 2027-2029; MOODY EXPECTS US TECHNOLOGY SPENDING ON CHIPS AND DATA CENTRES TO BE CLOSE TO $1 TRILLION IN 2027 (NOTE: CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE IS ABOUT RMB 6.72 TRILLION)。
AT THE SAME TIME, WALL STREET FINANCIERS ARE DISCUSSING WHETHER AI’S HUGE SPENDING CAN TRANSLATE INTO REAL PRODUCTIVITY GAINS, AND MASK’S PREDICTIONS ARE CLEARLY OPTIMISTIC。
The scale of the current AI investment boom is indeed considerable. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Global Management, predicts that between 2027 and 2029, U.S. AI ' s related capital expenditure could reach about 31 TP3T per year, significantly above the 0.61 TP3T level three years ago。
However, historical experience has shown that investment translates into productivity gains often with some lag. For example, in the 1990s, when the Internet waveInvestment takes years to translate into productivity growth within the economy.
IN ADDITION, THE VIEW OF MAINSTREAM ECONOMIC FORECASTERS ON THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE AND THE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT FURTHER INCREASES UNCERTAINTY. THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISED THE BASE RATE TO 4.00% ON 16 SEPTEMBER, AND GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS A FURTHER INCREASE IN OCTOBER。
ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS, HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO PREVENT LARGE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES FROM CONTINUING TO INVEST HEAVILY IN AI INFRASTRUCTURE, BUT MAY MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SMALLER FIRMS IN THE ECONOMY TO RAISE FUNDS。