RESEARCH INSTITUTE METR UPDATE TECHNOLOGY REPORT: AI CAPACITY DOUBLED PER 88.6 DAYS

Facial Intelligence and Chinghua proposed the Law of Density in 2024: The parameters required to reach a specific level of intelligence are reduced by half every 3.5 months and are published in the Nature sub-publication; more recently, new data include a doubling of the training calculus of Meta Muse Spark to the duration of the METR mission of 88.6 days, which is highly consistent with the gradient of the density law and independently validated by the three parties; the cost of reasoning has fallen 400 to 900 times over the past year, with the maximum size of the running model doubling every 88 days, and the industry strategy needs to shift from stacking parameters to increasing density。