March 2, 2013 - In a recent episode of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Tesla and SpaceX founder ElonMuskOnce again, he shared his thoughts on artificial intelligence (AI) views on development. While he has always expressed concern about the potential risks of AI, this time he seems relatively optimistic about the future of humanity.
Musk said,He puts the probability of AI leading to the destruction of humanity at only 20%, and the probability of a good outcome at 80%This is not the first time he has mentioned this probability. This is not the first time he has mentioned this probability, having previously predicted that the likelihood of AI causing human extinction is between 10% and 20%.
Musk also said in the interview that he expects in the next year or two thatAI will surpass human intelligence and be "smarter than all humans combined" by 2029 or 20301AI notes that this is consistent with his previous predictions, though he said last year that AI could surpass human intelligence as early as the end of 2025.
Musk's fundamental views on AI have not changed. He has long believed that AI will far surpass human intelligence and pose an "existential risk," and the current situation is confirming his view. Other experts in the field of artificial intelligence have also expressed concern that AI could lead to human extinction. Deep learning expert Jeffrey Hinton believes that the probability of AI leading to human extinction in the next 30 years is 10%; while AI security researcher and cybersecurity director Roman Yampolsky said that the probability of human beings facing "destruction" is as high as 99.999999%.
Despite his concerns about the prospect of AI potentially destroying humanity, Musk said in the interview that he initially got involved in AI to create a "nonprofit open-source AI" that would stand in opposition to Google. He was one of the 11 co-founders of OpenAI, but has since left the organization. Last year, Musk filed two lawsuits against OpenAI, the first of which was dropped. In the second lawsuit, Musk's lawyers accused OpenAI of deviating from its mission, moving to a for-profit model, and forming a partnership with Microsoft.
Musk said in the interview that he was "dissatisfied" with the current OpenAI, which led him to found xAI and launch the Grok chatbot, which is designed to be "an AI that seeks the ultimate truth" even if that truth may be "politically incorrect. may be "politically incorrect". Musk said.He believes that the most likely outcome of AI advances will be "awesome," and that the future of AI will be either "super great" or "super bad," not "intermediate. The future of AI will be either "super great" or "super bad," not "in-between.