According to The Decoder, on April 27Federal ReserveA working paper published by the Governing Council has been available since November 2022 ChatGPT U.SprogrammingThe employment rate for the jobs in question has increased at a rate close to zero。
The research team cross-referenced the Ministry of Labour's occupational database with the Household Employment Survey, targeting programming-intensive jobs around 3.7% of the United States labour force. Before ChatGPT went online, such jobs grew at an annual rate of close to 51 TP3T; employment in the IT services and software development sector declined sharply after going online, and growth in employment nearly stagnated。
When researchers built the "anti-fact employment curve" to exclude macro-disturbing, they found that programmer employment was still shrinking at about 3 percentage points a year - companies were actively pushing down the proportion of jobs in the downsizing processThe cumulative gap over three years is about 500,000 posts.
"The employment gap will not increase significantly until mid-2024, implying that enterprises need sufficient time to observe real improvements in model capabilities before it can be translated into recruitment contraction decisions. I'm sorry
At the same time, it was pointed out that there was currently no significant decline in the salaries of programmers, the impact of which was mainly at the job level. The blogger also typifies that:Half a million is not equal to half a million unemployedCHANGES IN TAX POLICY BEYOND AI MAY ALSO INTERFERE WITH VARIABLES。
• full report: federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026018pap.pdf